In the May edition of
Washington monthly the issue of the Iraqi war and it´s impact on the recent trend of democratization in the Arab World is discussed. The Bush Administration´s role in pushing for democratization and supporting the string of elections in Afghanistan(not in the region, but a vital part of the Broader Middle East agenda for the administration), The Palestinian entity, Iraq, and the first municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and the upcomming parliamentary elections in Lebanon and Egypt(after the presidential elections in the same country), is credited to the administration in many parts of the political landscape in Washington, and also on many editorial pages in America.
How much credit should be given to President Bush and his administration ? And how much of this is a genuine localy rooted phenomena. My take on this is that the war initself , did create a space for a dialogue amongst leaders in the region, how to respond to this challenge. It did also galvanize some parts of the civil society to organize demonstrations against the war, like in Egypt for instane on the 23 of March 2003, when the largest demonstration since the bread riots in 1977 , as well as being anti anti-war soon turned in to being anti-Mubarak. This is also the nucleus of the Kifaya Movement, on the streets of Egypt today. In Egyptian society you could also see a trend of liberal newspapers comming , Masri al Youm is an example, where people like Saad Eddin Ibrahim and Hisham Kassem have taken Egyptian journalism to another level. Altough pro American and at least Hisham Kasem prodemocratization , americanstyle, is adressing all the important questions. Should this have happend with out the war ? Probably not on this scale.
Afghanistan is of course a succcessstory in many ways, getting rid of the Taliban regime can not be appreciated high enough. The progress for women and children is also priceless. Democratization and security is for me still big questionmarks , altough having a mediadarling like Hamid Karzai as president makes wonders at donor conferences , his hold on power outside the imidiate proximity of Kabul, and the possible resureraction of the Taliban dosent sound like progress to me.
The local and presidential elections in Palestine was in no way connected to the Bush campaign for democracy in the Arab World, the ammount of preasure that this administration has put on the Sharon government during the 50 months of the Bush White House, has always been to little to late. The good news on the Palestinian side ironically is very much due to the change in leadership caused by Mr Palestine´s unexpected death. Sooner or later the the American conception of the road map´s calling for Palestinean dismantlement of armed groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and al Aqsa Brigades are bound to clash with Mahmoud Abbas approach of involving the armed groups in the body politic of Palestine. For now, all eyes are on Sharon´s Gaza withdrawal, and alltough that is another tricky process, as we have seen as late as today with the minister of Diaspora, and one time high profile Sovjet dissident and today Bush´s pal and way of understanding the Middle East, by reading he´s political bestseller, Nathan Sharansky resigning does not in any way hamper the Sharon resolve to withdraw from Gaza, but it put´s focus on how fragile the whole Road map concept is. When are the final status negotiations going to begin ? If we´re lucky and optimistic , perhaps this time next year will be possible, but then we have the congress elections, etc , and Bush has already missed one timetable for a viable Palestinian State.
Saddam Hussein´s regime is gone, and that would not have been possible without the war. That is the greatest gift to the Iraqi people ever. But instead of freedom, from day one of the allied forces taking over power in Baghdad, never established control over essential parts of Iraq, by dismantling the Iraqi army they set the tone for the comming two years. Iraq´s still a queigmire , two years after the mission was supposed to be accomplished. We had the ellections , a relative success, with the only big problem being the sunnis not voting in large numbers, wére maybe on the path toward a constitution, even if i doubt that the newly elected parliament will be ready to present a draft proposal of the constitution by 15 August. The Iraqi press is by far the most diverse in the Arab world, alltough the gap between quantity and quality leaves alot to wish for.
Apart from the security situation, the reconstruction, the electricity situation, all the daily things that is needed in a functioning society and most of all the inclusion of the Sunni minority in the political and economical processes of the country don´t look a bit better , than on 9th of April when the Saddam Statue went down on Firdous Square.
Saudi Arabia has gone trough a rough time since 9/11 , their strong relationship to Washington has been in doubt. They have experienced unprecedented violence against the state. At the same time some progress have been made. The muncipal elections is just one of those. The Shiíte community´s problem has been put on the Saudi political map , and some individual brave journalists has been writing tough articles. How much of this is due to pressure from the outside ?
What looks like the most promising development in many ways , Lebanon , where the last Syrian soldier has left, just a week ago. And the road is paved for the uppcomming parliamentary elections in May, all of this would probably not have been possible, but for the tragic murder of Mr Lebanon on Valentine´s day 2005, eventough both The US administration and France played a significant role in drafting and advocating UN resolution 1494, and also when stressing that Hezballah could play a positive political and social role in the new Lebanon. The Lebanese People played the most important role , Wheather pro opposition or pro Syria, they shoved their will in demonstrations, all parties using national symbols , and stressing national unity. Showing a political matureness. Hopefully the national unity is something that will stick with the Lebanese long after the elections, showing the beacon of hope and unity 30 years after the war that coined the word for utter chaos and defragmentation of a state - Lebanonization.
