what comes next ?

This is the second article, written during the last days of February, when everything was still unclear.

28 February 2005

This is a big step forward, but it´s just one of many that has to follow for this to be anything but a imagesaving gesture to keep the external pressure at bay. An answer from the proud nation of Egypt to the state of the union address, that Egypt is indeed on the train of democratization. And at the same time a bone for the loyal opposition to keep them happy.

I would have preferred the first step to be the ending of the emergency laws , in place since time immemorial. The rewriting of the law regulating civil society organizations, followed by the scrapping of the political parties committee. But at least this is good start , and probably the single most significant step on the path of democratization since the decision in 1975 to accept different political trends to compete on the political arena.

If one looks at this in a optimistic way, this will create a momentum that is irrevocable, the pressure will not go away, If Ayman Nour is released in March, then perhaps the outside pressure will yield for a while, when the limelight will be on Lebanon and Syria. It´s not likely though that the opposition will end it´s demands on reform, even tough the opposition is rather week. If the Ayman Nour case doesn't resolve, the pressure will be tough on Mubarak from the outside, but one disturbing factor is that the opposition is not speaking with one voice, the issue of Ayman Nour was not touched upon in the national dialogue, even tough al Ghad was taking part in the talks, represented by it´s vice president. And the matter has not been addressed by any other party leader of the opposition parties, at the same the semiofficial press has portrayed Ayman Nour as an American agent , defaming Egypt in much the same way as with Saad Eddin Ibrahim in the summer of 2000. Perhaps this is the strategy. To discredit and split the only viable parliamentarian party, and at the same time show that the government does not cave in to American pressure, something that always seems popular with the Egyptian people.

To end on a positive note, the President stated in his speech at Menoufiyya University(Where else), said that this step comes at a time of normalization and this democratic reform goes hand in hand with a free press. If that is the case , then I can see more steps coming, the first being the scrapping of the emergency laws and the second the scrapping of the harsh laws concerning the press, both which have been highly criticized.

Referendum in Egypt

This is something i wrote the same afternoon that President gave his speech at the Menoufiyya University, announcing his intention to ask Parliament to consider an ammendment of what turmed out to be article 76 in the constitution. In this way opening up for direct multicandidate elections to the presidency.

26 February 2005

In a surprise move, the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced in a live appearence on Egyptian televison that he had asked the Egyptian parliament to make an amendment to the constitution to allow multiple presidential candidates to run for the presidency. The change in the constitution will be put to a referendum before the presidential election , due in September 2005.

The calls for a change in the constitution has been intensified for the last three months in what seems to be the toughest political challenge yet to the Mubarak government. After making the largest cabinet reshuffle during his 23 years tenure as president in August 2004, bringing in fresh blood , many of te new ministers closely connected to the son of the President , Gamal Mubarak, and his reformcommitte within the dominant political party, National Democratic Party (NDP). The new government led by PM Ahmad al Nazif is very much focused on economic reform , and within that framework the anouncement of a trade treaty between Egypt , USA and Israel, where the crucial part was the establishment of tax free zones, where Israeli high tech equipment should be part of the Egyptian products created soley for export. Eventough the precentage of the Israeli contribution ammounted only to 11 %, the symbolic significance of this treaty touched on the extremely delicate issue of nornalization of relations with Israel. Since the Camp David accord , Egypt has had " a cold peace " And normalization has been taboo in the political circles in Cairo, as well as among ordinary people. And now Ehud Olmert , the Israeli deputy PM sat next to Hosni Mubarak in Cairo,in what looked like a deal forced upon the egyptians without Egypt getting anything in return. This caused an uproar in the egyptian media. It did not help that Mubarak in a sudden change of heart, a week prior to the agreement announced to the world that Ariel Sharon was indeed the man with whom to make peace. Of course as the icing on the cake of the newfound "lovestory" between Egypt and Israel came the hosting of the Sharm al Sheikh summit and the subseqent return of the Egyptian Ambassador to Tel Aviv.

On a parallel domestic political track , the party license committee, headed by the speaker of the majlis ash Shura(the upper house) issued two new party licences in a month time, unparraleled in the quarter of a century it has working on these issues , it had also in the meantime scrapped al wasats third try to obtain a license. Wasat(center), a party made up from the youmnger generation , once associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and some christians as Rafiq Habib . The party has islamist leanings but not necesserally an ilamist plattform, wich of course is not allowed according to the constitution. This could prove to be a party with potential, but that is for the future. One of the parties allowed was Ayman Nours ,
Ghad(tommorow) , once the up and comming golden(boy) starlet of the new Wafd Party, untill being pushed out of the party by the new party leader. Then independent parliamentarian looking for a party , al Ghaád(tommorow) , where constitutional reform has been at the center of the party policy. Attracting a new generation of liberals , the Ghaád party is perhaps the most interesting contribution to the party politics of Egypt since the approval of the New Wafd party in 1978, because it gives an alternative to the silent mainstream of the egyptian populace, a generation fostered to be apolitical, people who have viewed the political game in apathy. All the more painful then , that the same tactics used against the new wafd in 78 is once again used to discredit the Ghaád. In the same type of misscalculation as Sadat 1978, no one seemed to have appreciated that this party could be for real, not interested of playing the roll of loyal opposition. Since getting the partylicence Ayman Nour has proven that the party intends to be a real political contender. The answer from the state was to charge him with forging 2000 names while in the proccess of applying for the party lisence. The way it was handled was also reminicsent of another case , the Social science professor of the American University in Cairo, Saad ad Din Ibrahim in June-July 2000. Ayman Nour was stripped of his parliamentarian immunity, arrested on the steps of parliament, his appartement searched, papers and commputer taken, and put in Tora prison for 45 days. He´s currently on a hunger strike since tuesday, suffering from a heartcondition and diabetes. In another development the Ghaád Party meeting held in solidarity with Ayman Nour at the five star Pyramisa hotel was disrupted by 22 men, psysically attacking three prominent members of the party. Pressure from the USA has also been an ingreedient in this, altough Mr Nour himself has asked specifically not for foreign governments to get involved. Foreign involvement in Egypts internal problems is also an issue of controversy, once again a direct paralell to The Ibrahim case. A few days ago, when the egyptian foreign minister was visiting Washington , during a press conference after his meeting with Condoleeza Rice, Minister Rice got a question if the ministers spoke about Ayman Nour during the meeting. Ms Rice expressed the american government deep concerns about the case of Mr Nour. Rice supposed to take part , later retirated from that position , indicating that she vold not go. The next day , the conference between the Arab League and the G8 countries on democratic reform, schedueled for next week was canceled.

Another interesting development is the announcement of three prominent intellectuals, that they intend to run for the presidency,among them, the highly controversial female author and doctor Nawal as Saadaáwi, the almost as controversial , abovementioned sociology Proffessor Saad Eddin Ibrahim , but perhaps the most encouraging sign is the evolving Kifaya movement, wich has staged five demonstrations since the 13th of december, the first outside the high court only had about 50 persons participating the latest had somewhere between 250 and 500. The movement has a very simple message - Kifaya(enough) , enough of Mubarak, no fifth term in office, and no to Gamal Mubarak as his succesor. The demonstration is always silent, people having stickers on their mouth and banners with Kifaya.

It will be interesting to see wich way the government will choose , if it is the path started today , or the path of old, of intimidation , obstruction and sillencing of the political opposition.

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4300039.stm

Muzzling academical freedom

As in practically every field of Egyptian life, the academica is controlled by the state, like politics, civil society and unions , the Universities faces restrictions by the state, be it by law, coersion or intimidation. To control the universities has been of tauntamount importance, at least since the 1952 revolution. Fostering the new generations of students is not something that is taken lightly by the state. Eventough under pressure from the state , the universities produces not only the next generation of the "lumpen inteligentia" but also a steady stream of political and religiuos motivated people , wheater islamist or leftist. Since the early seventies , the campuses have been the few playgrounds of politics, and many of the new generation of politicians of the left and islamists , started their political journey on campus.

HRW has ,as always made a thourough report of 107 pages , released today,Reading between the " Red Lines" - The Repression of Academic Freedom in Egyptian Universities. You can find The gurdian´s comment about it here

Egypt´s women wear black .... & white

One week after the demonstrations on the day of the referendum on article 76, Egypt´s women are organizing two manifestions. The first was started by Heba Rauof Ezzat, political Science Professor at the Cairo University, one of the people behind the highly successful islamonline.com, and islamist feminist, who launched the initiative - Egypt wears black, on friday, by e-mail and sms. The silent vigil will take place on 1 June at 1 o clock in front of the press syndicate, just as one of the two demonstrations(the other near the shrine of freedom icon and politician, Saád Zaghloul in Mounira) that were attacked by NDP thugs, who specically targeted and sexually harassed women.
The idea is that mothers across Egypt shall wear black as a sign of mourning today. The organisation is not connected to Kifaya or any other party, according to Heba Raouf Ezzat.
There is only one demand - The resignation of Egypt´s minister of Interior, Habib al Adly.

The other initiave is taken by Kifaya member Ghada Shahbandar togheter with a housevife and a television presenter. They are starting the official white ribbon campaign at the manifestation. They have prepared 4000 ribbons for the vigil. Both initiatives has gained a lot of positive reaction in a very short space of time.